US Dollar Index

The dollar held modest gains on Wednesday. US President Donald Trump expanded tariffs to pharmaceuticals and semiconductors by April. The dollar index rebounded above 107.00 and is still searching for direction this week. The dollar index continued to fluctuate around 107 on Wednesday, not far from the two-month low of 106.56 hit last Friday. Tariff concerns and tense negotiations on the Russia-Ukraine conflict triggered safe-haven buying. The dollar index remained above 107.00 in the Asian market on Wednesday. Traders closely watched the talks between US and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday aimed at ending the war in Ukraine. The dollar will remain a source of safety amid uncertainty and what appears to be a chaotic attempt to quell a very tragic and costly conflict. The market seems to be concerned about the frosty relationship between the United States and the European Union, with the United States and Russia holding a meeting in Saudi Arabia that excluded EU officials. This cast doubt on the market's initial enthusiasm for the possibility that Ukraine and Russia could find a middle ground that would lead to a better economic situation for all parties involved.

From the daily chart, the dollar index struggled to maintain its gains after regaining 107.00 points. Despite the mild rebound, the 20-day SMA (107.70) remains a key resistance level after last week's decline. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of technical indicators is still in negative territory (latest at 43), while the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicates a steady bearish momentum. Therefore, the 100-day SMA has an immediate support at 106.51, and a break below this level may confirm the short-term bearish outlook to 106.00 (round mark). As for the upside, the US dollar index needs stronger momentum to challenge 107.70 (0-day SMA). Then the 108.00 (market psychological mark) level.

Consider shorting the US dollar index around 107.35 today, stop loss: 107.45, target: 106.90, 106.80

WTI spot crude oil

US WTI crude oil was trading above $72.00 in early Asian trading on Wednesday. WTI prices extended their gains amid concerns about supply disruptions from Russia. It traded around $71.70 in early Asian trading on Wednesday. WTI prices extended their rebound amid concerns about supply disruptions from Russia. WTI prices rose slightly after a Ukrainian drone attack on a pumping station of a major Russian pipeline disrupted crude oil exports from Kazakhstan. On Tuesday, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that oil flows through the pipeline had been reduced by 30-40%. On the other hand, traders will be closely watching the progress of further tariff policies from US President Trump. Concerns about a potential global trade war could limit further gains for the black gold. Last week, US President Trump ordered his administration to consider imposing reciprocal tariffs on numerous trading partners.

From the recent technical trend, although crude oil has rebounded from the key technical support level of 70.00, further gains will depend on whether it can maintain sustained momentum above $72.26 (February 10 high) and $72.16 (20-day moving average). If it breaks, it will further look to $73.08 (50.0% Fibonacci retracement level from 66.80 to 79.37), and the next level points to 73.59 (200-day moving average). Short-term supply disruptions provide temporary support, but long-term bearish factors - increased supply from OPEC+, uncertain demand, and geopolitical risks - may limit gains. Therefore, the downside can focus on the $71.09 (89-day moving average) and $70 (market psychological barrier) areas, further pointing to the low of $68.42 on December 20 last year.

Consider going long on crude oil near 72.00 today, stop loss: 71.80; target: 72.90; 73.10

Spot gold

Gold prices hit a new high for the ninth time this year, at $2,947, as the latest tariff threats from US President Trump heightened trade war tensions and raised concerns about global economic growth, driving safe-haven flows into the precious metals market. Spot gold fluctuated in a narrow range in early Asian trading on Wednesday, trading near $2,930 an ounce. Gold prices rose more than 1% on Tuesday, hitting an intraday high of $2,937 an ounce, approaching the all-time high reached last week. Uncertainty over US President Trump's tariff plan has raised concerns about economic growth, prompting safe-haven flows into gold. The market is also watching talks between US and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia. The market sees increased safe-haven demand due to the disruptive nature of the Trump administration, and also sees a bullish technical chart trend. In addition, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased by 6.88 tons on Tuesday from the previous trading day, the largest single-day increase since January 17, and the current holdings are 869.94 tons, the highest since January 21.

From a technical perspective, the price trend of gold is climbing and is expected to break through the historical high again this week. The current gold price is about $2,930, and it has recorded a considerable increase compared to the previous low. However, as the price of gold continues to rise, technical indicators show some warning signs, especially the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is in the overbought zone (latest report 72), indicating that the market's buying sentiment is too high and the momentum of price increases may weaken. As the RSI enters the overbought zone, a correction may occur, and the market may choose to wait and see for the time being. This also means that the rise in gold prices may temporarily encounter resistance at $2,947.00 (historical high). It may even set a new high of $2,980 and $3,000. In addition, from the perspective of technical support, the current intraday support level re-adjustment further confirms the signs that the market may see a shock consolidation. Currently, the first support level of the day is $2,905 (Tuesday's low), and $2,900 (market psychological level). If this support level is broken, the subsequent support level may drop to last Friday's low of $2,877. Once the gold price falls below these levels, it may trigger further downward adjustments.

Today, you can consider going long on gold before 2,928.00, stop loss: 2,924.00; target: 2,950.00; 2.955.00

AUD/USD

On Wednesday, AUD/USD hovered around 0.6350 due to further gains in the US dollar and some caution ahead of the release of the Australian employment report on Thursday. AUD/USD stopped its three-day recovery against the backdrop of a stronger US dollar and managed to keep trading above the 0.6300 mark despite the hawkish rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Market participants remained wary of possible tariff actions by the United States while digesting the Reserve Bank of Australia's stance and awaiting further economic data. The Reserve Bank of Australia cut its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.10% on Tuesday and expressed caution about the prospect of further easing. The Australian dollar slipped to $0.6335 against the U.S. dollar after an initial bout of volatility. The Australian dollar hit a two-month high of $0.6374 on Monday, up 2.4% so far in February. However, broad dollar buying amid global geopolitical pressures temporarily weakened the support for the Australian dollar.

After the Reserve Bank of Australia's hawkish rate cut, the Australian dollar/dollar fell to a low of 0.6335, retreating from a multi-day rally, but still trading near the December high. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI), a technical indicator on the daily chart, was 61.30, in positive territory, but fell sharply, suggesting a slight easing of buying enthusiasm. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator prints rising green bars, reflecting the currency pair's gradual upward trend above the 20-day simple moving average (0.6284) and the market psychological level of 0.6300. As the decline after the rate hike is not large, the Australian dollar still maintains a supportive tone, so the upside targets can focus on the two-month high of $0.6374 and the $0.6400 (round mark) area. On the other hand, the downside target will be around 0.6300 (market psychological level), and a break will point to 0.6254 (February 13 low).

Today, you can consider going long on the Australian dollar before 0.6335, stop loss: 0.6325; target: 0.6380; 0.6400.

GBP/USD

The strong resumption of selling bias in the risk complex and further recovery of the US dollar prompted GBP/USD to quickly break the support level of 1.2600 and hit a new weekly low on Wednesday. GBP/USD remained firm after falling in the previous session and traded around 1.2610 in the Asian session on Wednesday. The pound may see significant fluctuations due to the inflation report, which may affect the Bank of England's interest rate cut strategy amid continued inflationary pressure. Despite cautious attitudes on the Fed's policy outlook, the currency pair found support as the US dollar struggled with falling Treasury yields. The US dollar index (DXY), which measures the US dollar against six major currencies, has fallen slightly to around 107.00. Meanwhile, the US 2-year Treasury yield is 4.30% and the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.54%.

From the daily chart, GBP/USD fell slightly and remained below 1.2600 after a continuous rebound that pushed it to its highest level this year at 1.2640. Despite the mild pullback, the broader outlook remains constructive as the pair continues to set its sights on the 100-day SMA at 1.2667, and the 1.2700 round-number mark area. Momentum indicators suggest that this is a temporary cooling period rather than a structural shift. The relative strength index (RSI) has fallen to 62, indicating that buying pressure has temporarily slowed down, but it remains in positive territory. Meanwhile, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram remains flat with green bars, reinforcing the view that the latest price action is more of a technical correction than a bearish reversal. As for the downside, first watch for this week's low of 1.0582, followed by 1.2540 (75-day SMA), further pointing to the 1.2500 (market psychological barrier) level.

Today's recommendation is to go long GBP before 1.2573, stop loss: 1.2560, target: 1.2630, 1.2640

USD/JPY

USD/JPY fell slightly despite the dollar trading higher, which indicates a stronger yen. President Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on automobiles, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. Investors await the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Japan's national CPI data for January. Hajime Takata, a member of the Bank of Japan's board of directors, said on Wednesday that "even after the January rate hike, the Bank of Japan must gradually change its policy to avoid upside price risks." Japan's real interest rate remains negative and the loose monetary environment has not changed. If the economy moves in line with the Bank of Japan's forecast, the degree of monetary support must be further adjusted. The Bank of Japan also needs to take a cautious approach in adjusting its policy due to the uncertainty of the US economic outlook and the difficulty in measuring the neutral interest rate level. The market can use the set neutral interest rate level as a forward-looking guide, which may pose challenges in terms of policy flexibility. So far, February has been a volatile period for USD/JPY. Jane Foley, a foreign exchange analyst at Rabobank, noted that the yen has been rising since the beginning of the year, falling earlier this month on profit-taking, but rebounding in recent trading sessions.

At the beginning of this week, USD/JPY fell, encouraged by the release of a better-than-expected fourth-quarter GDP report from Japan. The pair fell to a low of around 151.24, and then retreated after hitting a one-week high against the dollar. Increased bets that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates this year should limit further declines in the yen. The narrowing of the US-Japan yield gap may also provide support for the lower-yielding yen. The market believes that the yen may continue to rise in the coming months. The yen is the best performing G10 currency so far this year. A break below 151.24 (early week low) could put the pair on track for 150.00 (market psychological level), and 149.93 (February 7 low). And retain the year-end target of 145.00 USD/JPY. Conversely, any further move toward the 200-day moving average of 152.66 may be seen as a buying opportunity. Next is the 100-day moving average, currently around the 153.50 area, which if broken could trigger a short-covering rally above the 154.00 mark.

Today, it is recommended to short the US dollar before 151.70, stop loss: 151.90; target: 150.80, 150.60

EUR/USD

On Wednesday, EUR/USD maintained its bearish trend for the third consecutive day, retreating below 1.0450 in response to further improvement in the US dollar. As the S&P 500 hit a record high during the North American session, the euro will close the day down more than 0.30% against the US dollar. The current trading price of EUR/USD is 1.0430. Risk appetite has improved, but US President Donald Trump reiterated that he will impose a 25% tariff on imported cars. He added that he will announce the return of large companies related to chips and automobiles to the United States. EUR/USD has recovered in the past few weeks amid progress in peace talks related to the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Earlier, senior US officials and Russian policymakers held their first high-level meeting, which excluded Ukraine from the initial discussions.

From the daily chart, EUR/USD fell after encountering resistance near the 1.0500 psychological level and 1.0514 (February 14 high). However, the outlook for the major currency pair remains bullish as it remains above the 50-day moving average around 1.0386. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator is struggling to break through the 60.00 level (latest at 54.95). If the RSI can maintain above this level, the bullish momentum will be activated. The targets are 1.0500 (psychological level), 1.0514 (February 14 high), and then 1.0551 (100 moving average). Looking down, the first target will be 1.0400 (round mark), and 1.0411 (20-day moving average). If it breaks, it will test 1.0317 (February 12 low), and the round mark of 1.0300.

Today, it is recommended to go long on the euro before 1.0410, stop loss: 1.0400, target: 1.0450, 1.0460.

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