US Dollar Index

The dollar weakened to below 104 on growth concerns ahead of US President Trump's planned announcement of reciprocal tariffs this week, with the yen benefiting from safe-haven inflows as stocks fell and US Treasury yields fell. Traders were optimistic that trade tariffs would not be as severe as feared, but they remain concerned that it would affect economic growth and reignite inflation. Investors were more cautious as it was unclear what tariffs would be implemented. Initial optimism for the dollar came from the White House's threat of further tariffs, however, concerns about how the US economy would perform under this new trade tension ultimately hit sentiment, causing the index to fall. The volatility of the dollar was accompanied by a generally mixed performance in US yields. Although short-term yields retreated to multi-day lows, medium- and long-term yields corrected some of the intra-week rebound on Friday and remained modestly higher on the week.

Technically, the US dollar index is still trading below its key 200-day simple moving average of 104.94, reinforcing the bearish outlook. Buyers appear to be re-entering the market after recent oversold conditions, but if the rally continues, we could see the index retest the weekly high of 104.55 (25-day SMA), and 104.63 (March 26), followed by further obstacles at the 200-day SMA of 104.94. On the downside, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart is in negative territory around 42.8, which suggests that selling pressure is increasing, with support expected first at the 2025 low of 103.20 (March 11), and 103.00 (round number). Then at the 102.53 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement of 100.16 to 110.18) level.

Today, consider shorting the US dollar index around 104.26, stop loss: 104.40, target: 103.90, 103.80

WTI spot crude oil

On Thursday (March 27), international oil prices rose slightly as market participants were evaluating the impact of tightening global crude oil supply and the latest US tariffs on the global economy and energy demand. On Monday (March 31), driven by US President Trump's possible tariffs on Russia and threats of military action against Iran, oil prices rose sharply to a near one-month high of $71.56, a five-week closing high, as the market worried that supply might be restricted. Despite US President Trump's warning that he might impose tariffs on Russian oil buyers, international oil prices were still slightly under pressure on Monday. US President Trump plans to announce reciprocal tariffs from April 2, which will cover a wide range of imported goods. The trade war has investors worried about a potential recession. Concerns about the trade war, coupled with rising US policy uncertainty, have seriously affected market sentiment. Despite the elevated recession risk, high-frequency oil demand indicators are holding up relatively well for now. With Trump announcing a new 25% tariff on potential buyers of Venezuelan crude on Monday, oil supplies in the second quarter should be tighter than originally thought, which is certainly a bullish development if there is less Venezuelan or Iranian crude on the market. OPEC+ will begin implementing a monthly increase in oil production in April. The group, which consists of OPEC and allies led by Russia, is likely to continue raising oil production in May, Reuters reported on Monday.

Since the mid-$66.00 low last month, WTI crude oil prices have been rising, breaking through the $67.63 (20-day moving average) resistance line and now turning support. This upward trend seems to be supported by the rising trend line that has been in place since March 19, and as long as it remains intact, the short-term bullish outlook remains. However, on the other hand, we also note that the RSI indicator has risen sharply above 50, which means that traders are skeptical about pushing WTI price action higher. If the bulls maintain control of the commodity price action, we may see oil prices break through the resistance areas of $70.00 {market psychological level}, and $70.68 {upper rail of the upward channel}, and begin to target the $72.22 {200-day moving average} level. Even pointing to the $73.37 (February 11 high) resistance level. If the bears take over, we may see WTI's price action initially break the previously mentioned upward trend line, which is the first signal of an interruption in the upward movement, and continue to fall, with a clear break back below $70.00, and $67.63 (20-day moving average), and $67.40 {upper rail of the upward channel} will be seen. It will then target the $66.07 (March 19 low) support level.

Today, consider going long on crude oil near 71.35, stop loss: 71.20; target: 72.80; 73.00

Spot gold

On Monday, gold prices hit another record high, breaking the $3,100 mark for the first time, and then rose to a record high of $3,128 before retreating slightly. As uncertainty surrounding US trade policy and the April 2 Liberation Day remains, investors turned to risk aversion and flocked to the safe-haven appeal of gold. Up more than 1%. Buyers broke through the $3,100 threshold for the first time. Heightened concerns about a potential global trade war and stagflation in the United States have further boosted demand for traditional safe-haven assets such as gold. In early trading on Monday, the precious metal maintained an upward trend near its all-time highs due to concerns that US President Trump's latest tariff measures could trigger a global trade war. Continued concerns related to trade wars and global economic uncertainty have driven up the price of this traditional safe-haven asset, gold, which in turn weakened the US dollar and pushed up the prices of commodities denominated in US dollars. Safe-haven demand continues to support gold as concerns over tariffs, trade and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty intensify. Gold prices hit a record high last Friday as US President Trump's latest tariff policy raised concerns about the outbreak of a global trade war and investors flocked to safe-haven assets.

The relative strength index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart has risen above 77.00, although it points to an overbought state in the short term. But at this stage, the most extreme level of the upward trend will be 80. Therefore, the immediate resistance above is at the $3,150 mark, followed by $3,200 (psychological mark). If gold undergoes a technical correction, on the contrary, the first support level for gold prices is the $3,100 mark, followed by $3,060 (the central axis of the ascending channel), followed by $3,0460 (9-day simple moving average)) may be regarded as the second support level, and the next target will be the psychological mark of $3,000.

Consider going long on gold before 3,120 today, stop loss: 3,115; target: 3,140.00; 3.145.00

AUD/USD

During the North American session on Monday, the AUD/USD pair fell to its lowest level in three weeks, sliding towards the 0.6219 area, with the Australian dollar underperforming on all fronts. The bearish sentiment was driven by a strong rebound in the US dollar due to rising trade tensions and broad risk aversion ahead of "Liberation Day". With the Reserve Bank of Australia policy decision approaching, investors have little interest in holding the Australian dollar, especially as technical indicators show a downward trend. The Australian dollar recovered some of its lost ground on Monday, boosted by positive Chinese economic data. The latest data released on Monday showed that China's National Bureau of Statistics Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.5 in March, compared with 50.2 in February. The data was in line with market consensus. Meanwhile, the National Bureau of Statistics' non-manufacturing PMI improved to 50.8 in March, from 50.4 in the previous month, stronger than the expected 50.5. However, the upside for the pair is expected to be limited due to global trade concerns, especially against the backdrop of US President Trump's plan to announce reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday.

AUD/USD remains trapped within a "symmetrical triangle" pattern on the daily timeframe. The bearish bias remains, as the pair remains below the key 100-day moving average (0.6318). However, further consolidation cannot be ruled out as the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) hovers around 43, suggesting that the recent momentum is neutral to the downside. The first upside resistance for AUD/USD is seen at 0.6330, the high of March 26. A strong break above this level could see gains to 0.6369, the 120-day moving average, and 0.6375 (symmetrical triangle resistance line). Further upside, the next hurdle is located at 0.6400 (round number). On the downside, more selling could be triggered to drag the pair to 0.6225, the lower support line of the triangle pattern. An additional downside filter to watch is the 0.6200 mark.

Consider going long AUD today before 0.6230, stop loss: 0.6220; target: 0.6280; 0.6290.

GBP/USD

The British pound weakened against the US dollar as the US Liberation Day approaches, with President Donald Trump expected to announce additional tariffs on Wednesday, which are in addition to those already implemented on March 2. At press time, GBP/USD was trading at 1.2919, down 0.17%. GBP/USD was trading near 1.2970 during the Asian trading session on Monday, with the exchange rate gradually strengthening. Concerns that US President Trump's tariffs will trigger inflation and curb economic growth have put pressure on the US dollar and provided support for the major currency pair. Markets are concerned that tariffs will have a negative impact on the US economy, while limiting the Federal Reserve's chances of cutting interest rates and pushing up inflation in the short term. This could further drag on the US dollar and boost GBP/USD in the short term. British data showed that retail sales were unexpectedly strong in February, supporting the pound. The good news on retail sales in the first quarter provides a glimmer of hope for a possible change.

From the daily chart, the constructive outlook for GBP/USD remains in the short term. The pair once again needs to close the week above the 1.3000 mark to initiate a new uptrend with the initial target of the high of 1.3048 on November 6, 2024, and the central axis of the ascending channel, around 1.3060. Further gains will pave the way for buyers to target the resistance level of 1.3150–1.3200. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator remains in the bullish zone, currently trading close to 61, indicating that the bullish potential remains. In addition, the double bullish crossover provides support for the upward trajectory. If the correction regains momentum, the immediate downside support is at the 25-day simple moving average at 1.2875. If the sellers find a solid foothold below this level, the 200-day simple moving average at 1.2805 will become their next focus.

Today, we recommend going long on GBP before 1.2905, stop loss: 1.2895, target: 1.2950, ​​1.2960

USD/JPY

The yen strengthened against the dollar for a second day in a row on Monday and hit a one-week high in the Asian session. Global risk sentiment continues to be affected by concerns about the so-called reciprocal tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump on April 2 and geopolitical risks, which have become key factors driving fund flows to the safe-haven yen. Meanwhile, strong consumer inflation data released in Tokyo (Japan's capital) on Friday reaffirmed market bets that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates in May. This is a clear divergence from the market's general acceptance that the Federal Reserve will soon resume its rate-cutting cycle amid the tariff-driven US economic slowdown, and provides additional support for the low-yielding yen. In recent weeks, the yen has given up some of its gains this year, and tariff concerns may be one of the factors that led to this move. Despite the pullback, the core view in the market is that USD/JPY may end the year lower.

From a technical perspective, USD/JPY has fallen below 150 (market psychological level) and 149.76 (9-day simple moving average) from the beginning of the week to a low of 148.70. A decisive breakout will be seen as a new trigger for bearish traders and pave the way for deeper losses. USD/JPY may accelerate its decline towards 148.00 {round number} before falling to the next relevant support level of 147.54 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement of 146.54 to 151.21). On the other hand, the vicinity of 149.40 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) now seems to be an immediate obstacle, a break of which may trigger short-term covering and allow USD/JPY to recapture the psychological level of 150.00. A sustained strong breakout above the latter will indicate that the corrective retracement from the multi-week highs hit on Friday is over and pave the way for further gains.

Today, we recommend shorting the US dollar before 150.20, stop loss: 150.40; target: 149.10, 149.00

EUR/USD

EUR/USD fell slightly after the end of Monday's trading, remaining around the 1.08 area, still confined to its intraday range. Although the price action is slightly bearish on the day, the broader technical signals still point to potential bullish support, especially from long-term indicators. The EUR/USD pair attracted some bargain-hunting buying after dropping to around 1.0800 during the Asian session and is expected to rebound from the multi-week lows hit last Thursday. However, the rebound lacks bullish confidence and the spot price is currently trading around 1.0835, flat on the day. The US dollar has faced some selling pressure for the third consecutive day due to the risk of stagflation in the United States, becoming a key support factor for EUR/USD. The uncertainty of US President Trump's trade policy should make the Federal Reserve adopt a "wait-and-see" attitude when it comes to further easing monetary policy. However, this outlook has limited impetus for the US dollar and has not exerted any downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair. However, the general risk aversion may provide some support to the safe-haven dollar and limit the upside of the EUR/USD pair.

From the daily chart, the technical outlook is less clear, but the downside seems to be well controlled. EUR/USD is encountering bids around 1.0733 {three-week old}, and 1.0726 (200-day simple moving average). While according to the 20-day simple moving average {1.0830}, it remains above the longer-term moving average, showing a solid bullish slope, and the price is currently trying to break through the previous high level of 1.0955. The momentum indicator is flat around its 100 line, failing to provide directional clues, while the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) has slightly increased to around 60. If it breaks through 1.0900 (round mark), it will expose the 1.0955 (March 18 high) level, and after that, it may rise further to the psychological level of 1.1000. On the contrary, if it falls below 1.0800 (psychological barrier), it will expose the 1.0726 (200-day simple moving average), and 1.2727 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from 1.0360 to 1.0955).

Today it is recommended to go long on Euro before 1.0805, stop loss: 1.0800, target: 1.0855, 1.0865.

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