US Dollar Index

U.S. Treasuries are losing their safe-haven appeal and fell sharply last week. The sell-off in the bond market reflects a broader retreat by foreign investors from U.S. assets, triggering sharp declines in stocks, the dollar and government bonds as investors are increasingly concerned about the possible economic consequences of President Trump's trade policies. The dollar index fell more than 1% to 99.02 on Friday, the lowest level in nearly three years, and plunged 3.04% for the week. As investors continue to withdraw from U.S. assets, escalating trade tensions and concerns about the broader economic impact - especially on the United States - have severely hit market sentiment. On Friday, China's Ministry of Finance announced plans to increase tariffs on U.S. imports to 125% in direct retaliation for Washington's decision to increase tariffs on Chinese goods to as high as 145%. In addition, although the 90-day truce announced by President Trump briefly raised hopes for the resumption of trade negotiations, concerns about a recession are growing. The dollar weakened broadly against the euro and yen and fell to a 14-year low against the Swiss franc. So far this week, the dollar has fallen nearly 3%, on track for its biggest weekly drop since February this year.

The bearish tone of the US Dollar Index remains dominant since mid-February, with the key psychological level of 100 being easily breached by bears to a near three-year low of 99.02 last week. Technically speaking on the weekly chart, technical indicators suggest that the decline is far from over. Momentum remains strongly bearish as the US Dollar Index continues to fall. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to issue a sell signal, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 29.65, reflecting weak but not oversold momentum. The Momentum (10) reading of -3.303 confirms the continued downside risk. All major moving averages, including the 50-week at 104.82; the 100-week at 104.34; and the 200-week simple moving average at 102.60, signal selling pressure. No clear support is found below the current range. The technical backdrop suggests that the plunge in the US Dollar Index may not be over yet. The first support level can be considered at 99.02 (last week's three-year low). If it breaks, it will test 98.52 (the low in early April 2022) and 98.35 (the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level from 93.27 to 114.78). On the other hand, the initial resistance level of the US dollar index is 100.00 (market psychological level) and 100.14 (300-week moving average). If it breaks, it will rebound to 100.62 (the low in December last year), and then further challenge the 101.49 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level).

Today, you can consider going long on the US dollar index around 99.60, stop loss: 99.45, target: 100.15, 100.20

WTI spot crude oil

On Thursday (March 27), international oil prices rose slightly as market participants were evaluating the impact of tightening global crude oil supply and the latest US tariffs on the global economy and energy demand.

WTI crude oil prices fell to a near four-year low of $54.78 last week. The decline occurred at a time when US-China trade tensions were intensifying, making the demand outlook uncertain. Late last week, the United States announced that tariffs on Chinese imports would soar to 145%, adding a 125% tariff on top of the existing 20% ​​tariff. The move overshadowed US President Trump's 90-day suspension of tariff increases on most other countries and heightened concerns about fuel demand in China, the world's largest oil importer. The ongoing US-China trade dispute threatens global trade, disrupts supply chains, and slows economic growth - developments that will also curb oil consumption in the world's two largest energy consumers. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has lowered its forecasts for global economic growth and oil demand, warning that tariffs could have a significant impact on oil prices. For 2026, demand growth is now expected to be 1 million barrels per day, also lower than previously expected. The EIA also lowered its expectations for oil prices this year and next, pointing to further uncertainty from weak global growth and potential supply increases. At the same time, the OPEC+ alliance, including Russia, plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in May, further exacerbating concerns about market oversupply.

From the weekly chart, the price of WTI crude oil fell sharply in the past week, once falling to a nearly four-year low at the $54.78 support level, and then corrected higher, hitting the upper limit of the 62.81 resistance level, and then pulled back lower again. As the sharp downward movement of commodity prices is interrupted, its price will be relatively stable. However, at the same time, market participants seem to have a bearish tendency towards WTI, as the 14-week relative strength index (RSI) index of the technical indicator is still in the negative zone (latest at 33.46) despite some adjustments after a sharp drop. The 9-week and 20-week moving averages form a bearish "death cross" pattern, so in order to continue the bearish outlook, the bears need to break through the $57.70 support line, then the $55.52 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement level of 33.71 to 126.14), and the $54.78 (last week's low) support area. On the other hand, for the bullish outlook, if the price of WTI stabilizes above the psychological level of $60.00 and rises above $61.20 (last Friday's high), it will start to target last week's high of $63.64 and the $64.20 (the axis of the weekly chart downward channel) level.

Consider going long on crude oil near 60.80 today, stop loss: 60.60; target: 62.20; 62.40

Spot gold

Last week, gold prices hit a new all-time high of $3,245.50 again, as the falling dollar and the escalation of the trade war between China and the United States pushed investors to safe-haven gold. Gold's safe-haven appeal has reappeared and it is back on track to set new highs. However, the prospect of reaching an agreement with trading partners poses a significant risk to gold's upside potential as it could put pressure on gold again. In addition, the reduction of the Fed's rate cut bets may also bring resistance, which will push the dollar stronger. The market believes that gold is still in a strong upward trend and expects limited selling pressure as some investors still want to hold safe-haven assets even if sentiment improves. Although the Trump administration has suspended global tariffs for the next 90 days, economists point out that the trade war is not over yet. It will take time to undo all the damage caused by tariffs to global markets. In addition, the dollar was sold off across the board last Friday, and the dollar index fell below the key level of 100 {market psychology} for the first time since July 2023. At present, safe-haven funds are rapidly turning to assets such as gold. The dollar is gradually losing its market role as a "safe haven", which is extremely rare in past market cycles. Trump's erratic policies have caused the global market to no longer regard the dollar as a stable anchor asset, but instead boosted the attractiveness of gold.

From a technical point of view, the spot gold price showed amazing upward momentum last week, continuing its strong performance in recent days. From the beginning of the week to date, it has accumulated a 6.58% increase, showing obvious bullish market characteristics. The daily chart shows that spot gold has completed a typical "V" reversal pattern, rebounding strongly after a deep correction. After hitting a low of $2,956.70 at the beginning of last week, gold prices rebounded, breaking through the suppression of the psychological barrier of $3,000 in one fell swoop, and finally stood above the key resistance level of $3,105 {the central axis of the upward channel on the daily chart} to a new historical high of $3,245.50. It is worth noting that the 5-day and 14-day moving averages of gold prices formed a bullish "golden cross" pattern last week, which shows that the short-term trend has clearly turned bullish. Considering the strong upward momentum, additional gains are possible. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) indicator of the technical indicator climbed to around 71.15, almost vertically upward, indicating that there is room for further gains before buyers weaken. The initial resistance level is $3,300 {the psychological barrier of the market}, and after breaking through, there will be a new upward trend pointing to the threshold of $3,350.00. As for the downside, the initial demand zone is at $3,175.60 {last Friday's low}, below which the $3,100 round number could act as support.

Consider going long on gold before 3,232 today, stop loss: 3,228; target: 3,250; 3255

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar fell to a five-year low of 0.6914 against the US dollar last week. The pair depreciated as the White House confirmed that cumulative US tariffs on Chinese goods have risen to 145%. The announcement exacerbated the ongoing trade dispute between the world's two largest economies, worrying Australia given its close trade ties with China. Late last week, the Australian dollar rebounded sharply from the lows to a full-cycle high of 0.6300 as the US dollar weakened broadly {the US dollar index fell below 100}, the US economic outlook raised concerns, and investors' confidence in US assets weakened. Despite the 90-day tariff relief, the market remains cautious, fearing that President Trump's trade policies could push the US economy into a recession. The Trump administration also confirmed that cumulative tariffs on Chinese goods have risen to 145%, raising concerns about further retaliation from Beijing, which has increased tariffs from 84% to 125% on US imports. China is a major buyer of Australian goods and remains Australia's largest export market. Domestically, the timing of the next rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia is uncertain, with trade-related risks clouding the economic outlook. The market currently expects a 25 basis point rate cut in May and a total of about 120 basis points in a year.

From the weekly chart, AUD/USD traded just below 0.6300 before the end of last week. The pair rebounded above 0.6000 (market psychological level) after hitting a five-year low of 0.5914 last week. At this stage, AUD/USD is trading above the 5-week simple moving average of 0.6240, which is slightly bullish. However, the technical indicator 14-week relative strength index (RSI) is still below 50 {latest at around 47.14}, indicating that bearish pressure has not completely subsided. Meanwhile, the MACD is still sending weak signals, printing a new red bar, indicating that sellers have not fully exited. Final oscillator and stochastic readings remain neutral, indicating a lack of strong confidence in the trend. Immediate support is at the 0.6200 round-number mark, followed by 0.6181 {last Friday's low}. A decisive break below this level could weaken short-term bullish momentum, opening the door for a move towards 0.6156 {23.6% Fibonacci retracement from 0.6942 to 0.5914} and a sustained drop to the 0.6100 {round-number mark} area. On the upside, initial resistance is at last week's high, and the market's psychological mark of 0.6300, and 0.6306 {38.2% Fibonacci retracement}. A sustained break above this level could pave the way for a stronger rally and push AUD/USD towards 0.6389 (April 3 high), a breakout would point directly to 0.6407{30-week moving average}, and 0.6428{50.0% Fibonacci rebound} area levels.

Consider going long AUD before 0.6270 today, stop loss: 0.6255; target: 0.6340; 0.6350

GBP/USD

Last week, GBP broke through $1.3000, reaching a high of $1.3145, and approached the 6-month high of $1.3207 on April 3, after UK GDP unexpectedly grew 0.5% in February, five times the expected growth rate. All major sectors contributed, and stronger factory output hinted at stockpiling before Trump's new aggressive tariff measures. The solid data has seen traders slightly reduce expectations for a quick rate cut from the Bank of England, although three 25bp cuts are still priced in by 2025. The pound also benefited from a weaker dollar as investors reacted to the escalating US-China trade war. China's Ministry of Finance announced an increase in tariffs on US goods to 125%, following a week of retaliatory measures. The total US tariff burden on Chinese imports now stands at 145%, including a 125% import duty and an additional 20% fentanyl-related levy. As risk appetite improves, traders have reduced expectations for aggressive rate cuts from the Bank of England. The market now prices three 25bp rate cuts by the end of the year, in line with earlier BoE guidance for a gradual, quarterly easing cycle. The odds of a rate cut in May remain high, with further moves expected in August and November.

GBP/USD rose last week but performed moderately among its G10 peers, with the pair now trading in a 1.2708 - 1.3207 range ahead of the past two weeks of tariff turmoil. Fundamentals are tilting in favor of the pound as the market cuts expectations for the Bank of England to ease policy, providing support through a wider UK-US interest rate differential. The sharp rebound in GBP/USD is noteworthy. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the daily chart's technical indicator rebounded from the recent low of 41 to a high of 61.18 near the bullish zone, proving that the short-term GBP/USD has entered an upward trend. The next direct challenge for the bulls is expected to be the key turning point in the 1.3207 {April 3 high} area. Once the above resistance level is broken by the bulls, the next level will be 1.3305 {last October 2 high}, and 1.3310 {upper track of the daily chart upward channel} area, and a break will directly point to 1.3434 {September 26, 2024 high}. As for downside support, the first support level is expected to be 1.3000 (market psychological level), and the next level will point to the support area of ​​1.2966 (Friday's low), and 1.2936 (20-day simple moving average).

Today, it is recommended to short the pound before 1.3100, stop loss: 1.3120, target: 1.3030, 1.3020

USD/JPY

The yen rose to 142.07 against the dollar on Friday, reaching its highest level since September 2024, as concerns about US economic growth intensified, leading to a broad weakness in the US dollar, boosting demand for other safe-haven assets. The yen's gains were further supported by a parallel sell-off in US Treasuries, which are traditionally seen as a safe haven against uncertainty. Despite receiving a 90-day tariff relief, investors remain concerned that President Trump's trade policies could lead the United States into a recession. The Trump administration also confirmed that cumulative tariffs on Chinese goods have reached 145%, escalating the risk of further retaliation from Beijing, which has already imposed tariffs of 125% on US imports. Meanwhile, the market is closely watching US-Japan trade developments, as Tokyo is currently facing a reduction in US tariff rates to 10% and seeking more favorable terms through ongoing negotiations. At the same time, the Bank of Japan's hawkish stance has formed a clear divergence with the prospect of multiple rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. This in turn has provided some support for the yen and formed resistance for the pair. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Kato said earlier on Friday that foreign exchange rates should be determined by the market, adding that excessive foreign exchange volatility has a negative impact on the Japanese economy.

From a technical perspective, the break below the previous yearly low of 146.55-146.50 area late last week is seen as a new trigger for USD/JPY shorts. In addition, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart is deeply in negative territory (latest at 32.50). This suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the downside and supports the prospect of further depreciation. Therefore, the possibility of a subsequent break below Thursday's swing low of 144.00-144.05 area and towards the 143.00 mark and the next relevant support of 144.55-144.45 area looks quite obvious. A break below this level will test 143.71 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement of 139.58 to 158.88), and the 143 market psychological level. The next level will point to 142.00 {last September 7 low}, and 142.07 {last week's seven-month low}. The short-term ultimate target is the psychological level of 140.00, and the 139.58 {last September 16 low} area level. On the other hand, any attempt to rebound above 143.71 {78.6% Fibonacci retracement level}, and 144.00 (round mark) may attract new sellers and be limited near the 145.00 resistance level. However, a sustained strong breakthrough of the latter may trigger a short-term covering rebound, paving the way for the pair to push up to the 147.18 {10-day moving average} level.

Today, it is recommended to go long on the US dollar before 143.30, stop loss: 143.00; target: 144.50, 144.80

EUR/USD

The euro continued its upward momentum last week and rose strongly, breaking through the $1.13 mark for the first time since the end of February 2022, and once saw a high of 1.1475 in more than three years. Amid the turmoil dominated by global tariff disputes, the euro will achieve a 3.87% increase last week, the largest weekly increase since February this year. Buyers still dominate, pushing the formation of new highs for the year, accompanied by the recovery of risk appetite. This has raised concerns about a deep recession in the US economy and eroded investor confidence in US assets. Earlier last week, President Trump announced a 90-day suspension of a series of planned US tariff increases to buy time for trade negotiations. In response, the European Union suspended retaliatory tariffs against the United States. However, French President Macron warned that Trump's move represented only a "fragile pause" and warned that business confidence would continue to be under pressure. The EU also reiterated that it would not make any trade deal with the United States conditional on a digital regulatory framework. Meanwhile, rising expectations of more rate cuts from the European Central Bank could exert some selling pressure on the common currency. The ECB has cut its key deposit rate six times since June 2024 and is expected to cut again this week.

EUR/USD had a strong week. Maintaining a bullish vibe on the weekly chart, the pair surged to a more than three-year high of 1.1417 after breaking out of the "multiple top" formed by last August and September highs of 1.1200 - 1.1210; and 1.1222 {61.8% Fibonacci rebound from 1.2266 to 0.9535} resistance last week, showing active bullish momentum. However, the 14-week relative strength index (RSI) is close to 70.85, indicating overbought RSI conditions. This suggests that consolidation or a pullback cannot be ruled out before any short-term EUR/USD appreciation. Since the 9-week {1.0778} and 60-week {1.0759} formed a bullish "golden cross" pattern last week. Therefore, the direct resistance of EUR/USD will appear directly at 1.1483 {January 28, 2022 high}. If it breaks, it will look to the 1.1621 {76.4% Fibonacci rebound level} level. On the other hand, the initial support level of the major currency pair is at 1.1300 {round mark}. Breaking this level may expose further downside to 1.1222 {61.8% Fibonacci rebound level}, and the next level of attention is 1.1200 {round mark} level.

Today, it is recommended to short the euro before 1.1380, stop loss: 1.1400 target: 1.1310, 1.1300. 

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