Dollar Index

The US dollar index pared some of its gains following the Federal Reserve's decision to keep its benchmark interest rate at 4.5% and a press conference by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The dollar index, which measures the value of the greenback against six currencies, is stabilizing, avoiding a new five-month low of 103.20. Traders reacted to Germany's significant fiscal expansion while focusing on geopolitical risks associated with ongoing negotiations between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The index rebounded from earlier losses as sentiment shifted. In the Asian session on Wednesday, the dollar index hovered around 103.40, approaching a five-month low of 103.20 since October last year. Market sentiment was highly tense this week, with the upcoming meeting between the U.S. and Russian presidents and the resurgence of local conflicts in the Middle East. The market's attention to economic data has clearly declined, focusing on the instantaneous impact of geopolitical and political news flows; analysts believe that any new news could cause the dollar index to fall below the 103.00 mark.

From a recent technical analysis, the US dollar index has regained its base but remains below key resistance levels. The US dollar index is trying to regain strength, although it is still close to multi-month lows. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI), a technical indicator on the daily chart, is preparing to move out of the oversold area, suggesting a potential rebound, while the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) histogram continues to show bearish momentum, although downward pressure is easing. The first resistance level is at 103.67 (10-day simple moving average), followed by the round number mark of 104.00, marking a key breakthrough level. Support is at 103.00 (market psychological level), and a break below it may expose 102.81 (lower Bollinger Band). Although short-term momentum is recovering, the index is still below its 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, indicating that a sustained bullish trend has not yet formed.

Consider shorting the US dollar index near 103.60 today, stop loss: 103.70, target: 103.30, 103.20

WTI spot crude oil

Oil prices rose yesterday due to strong fuel demand in the United States and the approaching ceasefire talks in Ukraine. In the middle of the week, WTI crude oil prices turned from rising to falling, with US crude oil trading around $66.65 per barrel. Oil prices fell by about 1% on Tuesday. US President Trump and Russian President Putin discussed ending the three-year war in Ukraine and suspending energy infrastructure strikes, which may promote the relaxation of sanctions on Russian fuel exports. Some analysts say that even if the United States and Russia reach a ceasefire agreement on the Ukraine issue, it may take a long time to see a significant increase in Russian energy exports. According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) since 1997, Russia's crude oil production in 2024 will be about 9.2 million barrels per day, lower than the recent high of 9.8 million barrels per day in 2022 and the historical high of 10.6 million barrels per day in 2016. In addition to the possibility of increased oil supply from Russia, Trump's trade tariffs also weighed on crude oil prices. The OECD warned that the US tariffs would reduce economic growth in the United States, Canada and Mexico and affect global energy demand.

WTI crude oil tends to test the support levels of the lows of the $66.11 per barrel (March 13 low), and $66.00 (round mark), and is likely to fall below this level and fall to the range of $65.00 (this year's low), and $64.75 (last September 10 low). The signal became mixed after the market failed to break through the resistance levels of $68.50 (Tuesday's high), and $68.65 (25-day moving average). This failure caused the price to fall into the wedge range, which is considered a bullish pattern. But such a large drop has caused investors to have great doubts about this bullish possibility. Instead, the wedge is more likely to become a bearish pattern. To confirm the bearish wedge, only a break above $70.00 (market psychological barrier) can confirm the bullish wedge.

Today, consider going long on crude oil near 66.80, stop loss: 66.60; target: 68.20; 68.40

Spot gold

On Wednesday, spot gold traded near 3,050. On Tuesday, gold prices hit another record high of $3,052. The escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the tariff plan of US President Trump have led to rising trade uncertainty, driving demand for gold. The ceasefire of energy facilities facilitated by Trump's call with Putin provides an opportunity for peace talks, which may temporarily ease market concerns about the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine and weaken safe-haven demand, thereby exerting short-term pressure on gold prices, but a comprehensive ceasefire still faces huge challenges. The differences between the two sides on issues such as territorial concessions, military aid and control of nuclear power plants have complicated the negotiations. If the negotiations are deadlocked or the conflict escalates again, safe-haven demand may pick up and support gold prices. Gold continues to set new historical highs. But judging from the price fluctuations, the bulls are still cautious and cautious. Trading Opportunity Observation: Gold enters "no previous high mode".

Last week, gold broke through the key psychological price of $3,000 and then pulled back. This pullback may be largely attributed to some profit-taking, and market participants may be worried about a deeper pullback. Looking back at the gold rally over the past 18 months, we have seen a sharp pullback every time we broke through important integer levels such as $2,700 and $2,800. $3,000 per ounce is a bigger milestone, especially considering that the Federal Reserve meeting will be held this week, and investors can understand the concerns of market participants. The current gold price trend is difficult to judge, and spot gold has hit a new high above $3,052 per ounce. Due to the lack of historical data to refer to, it is particularly difficult to determine the resistance level. From the Fibonacci technical speculation: The next round of targets are new historical highs in areas such as $3,054.00 (178.6% Fibonacci rebound level) and the $3,100 mark. Immediate support levels identified are currently around the psychological $3,000 level, and the $2,982 (early week low) support area.

Consider going long on gold before 3,042 today, stop loss: 3,038; target: 3,065.00; 3.070.00

AUD/USD

AUD/USD initially fell below 0.6330 after the Fed’s monetary policy decision, but later pared some of its losses as the dollar weakened after Powell’s press conference. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 4.5%, reinforcing a cautious tone amid inflation and economic uncertainty. The Australian dollar remained stable on Wednesday, having experienced a setback in the previous session. AUD/USD held its ground as the US dollar remained firm. Australia’s Westpac Leading Economic Index rose 0.1% month-on-month in February 2025, the same pace as the previous month. Finance Minister Jim Chalmers addressed trade tensions in his speech on Tuesday, rejecting a “race to the bottom” strategy of tariffs. Chalmers criticized the Trump administration's trade policy as "self-defeating and self-destructive", stressing that Australia needs to focus on economic resilience rather than retaliation. He also condemned the US decision to exclude Australia from steel and aluminum tariff exemptions, calling it "disappointing, unnecessary, meaningless and wrong".

AUD/USD traded around 0.6350 on Wednesday, maintaining its bullish trajectory and continuing to climb within the rising channel on the daily chart. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator remained above 50 (latest at around 56), reinforcing the positive momentum. On the upside, AUD/USD may try to retest 0.6400 (round mark), as well as 0.6409 (three-month high, which was last reached on February 21). A break above this level may strengthen the bullish bias, which may push the currency pair towards the upper line of the rising channel near 0.6490. The key support level is the 25-day moving average at 0.6316. Further support is at 0.6300 (market psychological mark). A decisive break above this key area could weaken the bullish outlook and put AUD/USD under further downside pressure, targeting the 65-day moving average at 0.6268.

Consider going long AUD before 0.6340 today, stop loss: 0.6325; target: 0.6390; 0.6400.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD rose on Wednesday, hitting 1.3011 in intraday trading after the latest Federal Reserve rate decision was largely in line with expectations, with the Fed keeping rates unchanged at 4.5%. The Fed was widely expected to remain on hold again, but was looking for signs that it would continue to cut rates if the US labor market continues to deteriorate. GBP/USD fell slightly during the Asian session on Wednesday, trading just below 1.3000, after gains in the previous two trading days. The exchange rate came under pressure as the US dollar remained firm, supported by stable US Treasury yields. The US dollar index was trading around 103.40. The dollar is under pressure from weak U.S. economic data and renewed tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump, adding to investor uncertainty. Traders are closely watching the Federal Reserve's updated economic projections for further clues on the future direction of U.S. interest rates. Any hawkish signals from Fed policymakers could boost the dollar's appeal against other currencies. The pound is trading cautiously as investors focus on the Bank of England's interest rate decision on Thursday.

From a recent technical perspective, GBP/USD is testing its third consecutive week of gains, returning to the 1.3000 mark for the first time since November last year. The pair is currently trading 7.5% above January's multi-month low of 1.2099. The short-term exchange rate trend remains clearly biased towards GBP bulls, but GBP/USD may have been overextended as the 14-day relative strength index (RSI), a technical indicator on the daily chart, remains deep in overbought territory (latest at 70.50). The performance of the currency pair is still strong. If the bulls retest the psychological level of 1.3000, they will be expected to challenge the high of 1.3048 on November 6, and the short-term target is 1.3100. On the other hand, if GBP/USD encounters resistance at 1.3000, the currency pair may fall to the daily low of 1.2911 on March 17, followed by the low of 1.2861 on March 10. Further retest the 200-day moving average level of 1.2795.

Today, it is recommended to go long on GBP before 1.2985, stop loss: 1.2970, target: 1.3045, 1.3050

USD/JPY

USD/JPY jumped to nearly the psychological level of 150.00 during the North American trading session on Wednesday. It rose after the Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep interest rates unchanged. Although officials were cautious about interest rates, the US dollar failed to rebound significantly. The pair instead retreated to lows around 148.70. During Wednesday’s Asian session, the yen remained negatively biased amid weaker-than-expected domestic data and showed muted reaction to the Bank of Japan’s decision to keep its short-term interest rate target unchanged. Apart from this, the dollar’s ​​modest rebound from multi-month lows hit on Tuesday helped maintain buying sentiment around the mid-149.00 level for the USD/JPY pair. The Bank of Japan announced on Wednesday that it would maintain its short-term interest rate target in the 0.40%-0.50% range after a two-day monetary policy review meeting. In the accompanying policy statement, the central bank noted that uncertainty over the Japanese economy and prices remains high. However, traders appear reluctant to make aggressive bets.

From a technical perspective, the recent breakout above the 100-hour simple moving average at 148.84 on the 4-hour chart is seen as a key trigger for bulls. Moreover, the 14-hour relative strength index (RSI), a technical indicator on the chart, remains well within the positive territory (latest at 58.50), supporting the prospect of further gains. Nonetheless, the failed breakout ahead of the psychological 150.00 mark warrants some caution. Therefore, it would be wise to wait for a sustained strong breakout before targeting the 150.75-150.80 area or the 200-hour moving average at 150.48 on the 4-hour chart. On the other hand, the 149.00 mark and the 148.84 area (100-hour moving average on the 4-hour chart) should act as immediate support. A break below the latter would indicate that the upward momentum of the past week or so has been exhausted and drag USD/JPY to the 148.25-148.20 support level, and further to the 147.00 round mark.

Today, it is recommended to short the US dollar before 149.00, stop loss: 149.20; target: 148.00, 147.80

EUR/USD

On Wednesday, EUR/USD soared on the US Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged, albeit with a slightly hawkish tone on the future rate path. The pair fluctuated in the 1.0900 range. EUR/USD hit a fresh 23-month high of 1.0955 as risk appetite in the market turned positive. The European Union leaders’ summit will be held in the latter part of the trading week, with the presence of European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Thursday. During the Asian trading session on Wednesday, EUR/USD weakened around 1.0935, pressured by a modest rebound in the US dollar. Stronger-than-expected US economic data released on Tuesday provided some support to the dollar. Data released by the Federal Reserve showed that US industrial production increased by 0.7% month-on-month in February, compared with 0.3% in January (revised from 0.5%). In the eurozone, the German parliament approved plans for a massive spending surge on Tuesday. This positive development is likely to support the euro, as the plan approved in the Bundestag on Tuesday will provide the incoming chancellor with tens of billions of euros to boost investment after two years of contraction in Europe's largest economy.

From a technical perspective, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) index on the daily chart of EUR/USD is currently retreating from the overbought area, although showing signs of flattening, indicating a weakening of bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) shows a flat green bar, suggesting a lack of strong trend confidence. Taken together, these indicators suggest that the pair may enter a consolidation phase before making a clear move. Looking ahead, resistance is set at the 1.1000 level, which has historically been an important barrier. A breakout points to the 1.1050 (high on October 3 last year) mark. On the downside, initial support is at 1.0876 (10-day moving average), followed by stronger support at 1.0822 (March 13 low), and the 1.0800 (round mark) area. Sustained trading above 1.0800 will maintain the overall bullish outlook.

Today, it is recommended to go long on the euro before 1.0890, with a stop loss of 1.0878 and targets of 1.0940 and 1.0950.

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