Dollar Index

The dollar index, which measures the value of the U.S. dollar against a basket of six major world currencies, fell below 98.00 to 997.91, the lowest level since March 2022. The heightened uncertainty surrounding U.S. President Trump's tariffs and concerns about global economic growth in the U.S.-China trade war have led to a general weakening of the U.S. dollar. At the beginning of the week, the market's risk aversion increased. U.S. President Trump said on the social platform that "the golden rule of negotiation and success: those who have gold make the rules", which is expected to set a new record high again. The dollar fell below 99 and 98 in the early trading, reaching a low of 97.91, a drop of more than 1.0%, the lowest since April 2022. As the Trump administration's protectionist policies continue to escalate, the safe-haven status of the U.S. dollar and U.S. bonds is facing unprecedented challenges. Major international institutions have made it clear that they are reducing their exposure to the U.S. dollar and long-term U.S. bonds and instead increasing their holdings of European, Japanese and emerging market bonds. This strategic adjustment may herald a major change in the global capital flow pattern.

From the daily chart analysis, the US dollar index has gone through a complete downward trend from the high of 110.18 at the beginning of this year, breaking through three important moving averages, namely 20, 100 and 200 days. The price has hit a three-year low of 97.91. The technical chart shows that the key support level has been lost, and the short-term downside risk has increased significantly. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) indicator has dropped to around 23, entering the oversold area, suggesting a possible technical rebound. However, the MACD indicator is still in a dead cross state, with a DIFF value of -1.4124 and a DEA value of -1.1281, indicating that the medium-term downward momentum is still strong. In addition, the price has fallen below the important support levels of 100.00 and 99.00, turning into a new resistance area. On the downside, 97.91 (Monday's low), a break points to 97.72 {March 10, 2022 low}.

Today, consider shorting the US dollar index near 98.38, stop loss: 98.50, target: 97.90, 97.80

WTI spot crude oil

On Thursday (March 27), international oil prices rose slightly as market participants were evaluating the impact of tightening global crude oil supply and the latest US tariffs on the global economy and energy demand. On Monday, WTI crude oil futures fell 1.67% to $62.64 per barrel as tensions between the United States and Iran eased, raising the possibility of more Iranian crude oil returning to the market. The two sides have made "very good progress" in negotiations and plan to draft a framework for a potential nuclear deal. This came after the United States imposed new sanctions on a Chinese refinery accused of processing Iranian oil. At the same time, demand concerns remain due to concerns that US tariffs could weaken global growth. A recent poll showed that the probability of the United States falling into recession within a year is close to 50%. In addition, although some countries may cut production due to over-quota, OPEC+ still expects to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in May. Oil prices have fallen sharply this month, hitting a four-year low at one point, as investors worry that the tariff war between the United States and major trading partners, including China, could severely hit crude oil demand. In addition, OPEC+'s decision to restore crude oil production at a faster-than-expected pace has also exacerbated concerns about oversupply. As some countries are still celebrating the Easter holiday on Monday, trading volume in the crude oil futures market may be lower than usual.

The progress made in the US-Iran nuclear talks will undoubtedly suppress short-term oil prices, and the market's expectations of a return to supply will suppress speculative bullish sentiment. However, considering that the implementation of the agreement still faces complex procedures, coupled with the unstable geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine and OPEC's regulation is not yet fully in place, the oil market will continue to fluctuate widely in the future, ranging from $60 {psychological barrier} to $65.01 {20-day moving average}. Although the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) index of the technical indicator of the daily chart is in the negative zone {44.57}, it continues to rise in stages. It is expected that oil prices have begun to form a bottom and can make a larger rebound process. If it can break through the $63.0 {16-day moving average} level, it will strengthen the bullish trend to the $65.00 {round mark} and $65.01 {20-day moving average} area. The current support level is expected to be $62.00 {round mark}, and the next level is $61.30 {9-day moving average}, and $60.00 {market psychological mark} level.

Today, you can consider going long on crude oil around 62.50, stop loss: 62.30; target: 63.80; 64.00

Spot gold

On Monday, spot gold rose and traded around $3,420. The market's risk aversion increased. US President Trump said on the social platform that "the golden rule of negotiation and success: those who own gold make the rules." Earlier, it refreshed the historical high again to around $3,430. Previously, there was some profit-taking due to the long weekend. Uncertainty about U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policy and ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to support the precious metal. As uncertainty about tariffs and their impact on the economy rises, investors have flocked to safe haven assets such as gold, which has risen more than 28% since January. In this environment of increasing tariff uncertainty, slowing economic growth, rising inflation, increasing geopolitical risks, and diversification towards U.S. assets and the dollar, the case for increasing gold allocations is more compelling than ever.

At the beginning of the week, gold prices rose, setting a new record high of $3,430. There was some profit-taking due to the long weekend. From the daily chart, although the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator remains severely overbought, currently close to 77.24, it has not yet approached the extreme level of 80. Gold buyers remain firm. Gold prices need to find acceptance above $3,400 {round mark} on the daily close to target the next psychological threshold of $3,450. The next level will point to the $3,500 mark. On the other hand, any pullback below $3,400 could challenge the early week low of $3,329, below which the $3,300 round mark could come into play. If the pullback intensifies, a test of Friday's low of $3,284 would be inevitable.

Consider going long on gold before 3,420 today, stop loss: 3,415; target: 3,450; 3455

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar rose above $0.64 on Monday, close to a four-month high, as broad U.S. dollar weakness continued to support the commodity-linked currency. The Australian dollar recovered its losses against the greenback on Monday as the dollar came under pressure amid concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve. The Australian dollar remained firm against the U.S. dollar after the People's Bank of China decided to keep the lending market benchmark rate unchanged, with the one-year rate unchanged at 3.10% and the five-year rate unchanged at 3.60%. The Australian dollar rose as the U.S. dollar weakened, weighed down by concerns about the economic impact of new U.S. tariffs. AUD/USD has found support as the US dollar weakened on growing concerns about the economic consequences of US tariffs. The Australian dollar was further boosted after US President Trump announced that key technology products, many of which are made in China, Australia's main trading partner and a major consumer of commodity exports, would be exempted from the proposed "reciprocal" tariffs.

AUD/USD fluctuated around 0.6400 at the beginning of the week, and earlier hit the 0.6438 mark, the highest since December 2024. Daily chart indicators point to a bullish bias. The pair remains above the 9-day exponential moving average (EMA), while the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) remains above the 60 level, both supporting continued upward momentum. On the upside, AUD/USD may trade at the 0.6471 {200-day simple moving average} level. The next level points to the 0.6500 round number mark. On the downside, initial support is seen at 0.6400{psychological barrier}, followed by 0.6332{125-day moving average}, with additional support at 0.6300{market psychological barrier}. A break below these levels could weaken the short-term bullish outlook and open up space for further declines.

Consider going long AUD before 0.6400 today, Stop Loss: 0.6390; Target: 0.6450; 0.6460

GBP/USD

GBP/USD extended gains to 1.3422 in the early week session and is currently trading near 1.3370. The gains in the major currency pairs were supported by a broadly weaker US dollar, with traders increasingly confident that US President Trump's economic policies will lead to a recession. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and US President Trump held their first phone call since Trump imposed tariffs on British goods, discussing "ongoing and productive" trade talks. According to a Downing Street official, Starmer stressed his commitment to “the importance of free and open trade and protecting national interests.” Meanwhile, optimism surrounding the US-UK trade talks continues to support GBP/USD in the near term. Nonetheless, hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve could boost the dollar and limit upside for major currency pairs. Fed Chairman Powell said last week that escalating tariffs could drive inflation while weakening growth, complicating the path of interest rate decisions.

On the daily chart, GBP/USD remains above the 9-day simple moving average (1.3165), while the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) indicator remains above 70, suggesting that the bullish bias remains intact. On the upside, last September’s high of 1.3434 acts as the first resistance, followed by 1.3460 and then the round number mark of 1.3500. On the downside, if the pair falls below the support at 1.3300 (round number mark), then 1.3278 (Monday’s low) and 1.3165 (9-day simple moving average).

Today, we recommend going long on GBP before 1.3360, stop loss: 1.3345, target: 1.3400, 1.3420

USD/JPY

The yen started the new week on a positive note, rising to 140.47, the highest level since September, amid a broadly weakening dollar. Optimism over US-Japan trade talks and underlying bearish sentiment in global financial markets continue to drive flows to the safe-haven yen. In addition, data released on Friday showed that Japan's core inflation accelerated in March, opening the door for further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, which is seen as another factor supporting the yen. Meanwhile, yen bulls seemed unfazed by reports that the Bank of Japan will lower its growth forecasts as the market worries about the possible economic impact of US President Trump's high tariffs. On the other hand, the dollar fell to a two-year low on uncertainty over Trump's trade policy, undermining investor confidence in US economic growth. This suggests that the path of least resistance for USD/JPY remains to the downside.

From the daily chart, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) has shown oversold conditions at 28.16, raising some caution for bearish traders. Therefore, it would be wise to wait for some short-term consolidation or a modest rebound before positioning for a continuation of the clear downtrend. In the meantime, the attempted rebound may encounter some resistance in the 141.60-141.65 area. Next is the round number mark of 142.00 and the 142.40-142.45 barrier, a breakout of which may trigger a new wave of covering, pushing USD/JPY to the 143.00 mark. However, any further gains may still be seen as a selling opportunity. On the other hand, a sustained breakout and acceptance below the 141.00 mark may be seen as a new trigger for bearish traders, making USD/JPY vulnerable. The subsequent decline may drag the spot price to the psychological mark of 140.00. The downward trajectory may extend to the yearly low in 2024 and fall to the 139.60-139.55 area.

Today, it is recommended to short the US dollar before 141.10, stop loss: 141.30; target: 140.30, 140.10

EUR/USD

The euro rose more than 1.5% against the US dollar to $1.1575, the highest level since November 2021. The rise was driven by the general weakness of the US dollar and the growing concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve. The change came after speeches by President Trump and the director of the National Economic Council, who said that Trump is still "studying" whether to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. The US dollar index, which tracks the value of the US dollar against six major currencies, refreshed to a three-year low near 97.91. Growing concerns about a US recession and the independence of the Federal Reserve continue to exert downward pressure on the US dollar. At the same time, the lack of any progress in trade negotiations between the United States and the European Union also continued to exert resistance on the US dollar, keeping the EUR/USD pair supported. This momentum is supported by the bearish sentiment surrounding the US dollar, further consolidating the prospects of the recently established uptrend. The uncertainty of US President Trump's trade policy still weakens the US dollar. And dragged the dollar to a two-year low. And provided a tailwind for EUR/USD.

From the recent technical trend analysis, EUR/USD continued to rebound after breaking above 1.1400. The overall outlook for major currency pairs remains strongly bullish as all short-term to long-term exponential moving averages are tilted upward. The relative strength index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart rose above 70, reflecting the overbought state of EUR/USD. On the downside, 1.1500 (midpoint of the ascending channel) serves as the first support level, followed by 1.1450 (static level) and 1.1400 (20-period simple moving average). Looking up, the first resistance level may be 1.1600 (static level, round number mark), followed by 1.1670 (upper track of the ascending channel).

Today, it is recommended to go long on the euro before 1.1495, stop loss: 1.1480 target: 1.1540, 1.1550.

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