US Dollar Index

On Monday, the US Dollar Index (DXY) fell below 102, erasing gains from the previous trading session. This follows stronger-than-expected employment data, which bolstered market bets for a Federal Reserve rate hike in December. Non-farm payrolls increased by 165,000—more than double the 65,000 expected—while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, highlighting the resilience of the labor market. The market now assigns an approximately 81% probability to a Fed rate hike in December, up from 71% prior to the release of the employment report. Among recent comments from Fed officials, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly suggested that further rate hikes might still be necessary, despite the recent sell-off in technology stocks. Investors are now turning their attention to key US inflation data due this week for further insight into the monetary policy outlook: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is scheduled for Tuesday, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) data on Friday.

On the daily chart, the US Dollar Index is trading near 101.70. With the price holding above the lower Bollinger Band (101.38) and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 101.13, the short-term bias remains bullish, suggesting a constructive underlying trend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 50, indicating positive momentum that is not yet overextended, while the FXS Fed Sentiment Index sits at 143.10—reflecting high market expectations for policy tightening, which provides support for the dollar. On the downside, initial support lies at the lower Bollinger Band (101.38), with deeper technical support found near the 50-day EMA at 101.13; should downward pressure persist, this level could serve as a floor. As long as the US Dollar Index remains above these moving average support levels, the path of least resistance remains to the upside, and any pullbacks may be viewed as consolidation within a broader bullish trend. On the upside, keep an eye on the 102.46 (October 29 high) to 102.47 (upper Bollinger Band) range.

For today, consider shorting the USD at 101.80, with a stop-loss at 101.90 and targets at 101.40 and 101.30.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar rose toward $0.69 but remains near multi-month lows. A strengthening US dollar has offset the support provided by hawkish remarks from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) officials, who continue to point to persistent inflationary pressures. RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter noted that the investment boom in artificial intelligence could drive up demand for data centers and energy, thereby exacerbating short-term inflation. Previously, Deputy Governor Hauser warned that a decline in public confidence regarding the RBA’s ability to control inflation could force the central bank to implement more aggressive interest rate hikes. Last week, the RBA raised interest rates for the fifth time this year, bringing the rate to an 18-year high of 4.85%; however, the decision was reached by a 6-3 vote, with three policymakers favoring no change. Meanwhile, US employment data significantly exceeded expectations, pushing market bets for a Federal Reserve rate hike in December from 71% a week ago to approximately 79%, which in turn bolstered the US dollar. High valuations for artificial intelligence stocks and a waning appetite for risk have also placed downward pressure on the Australian dollar.

On the daily chart, AUD/USD continues its decline, exhibiting a clear bearish bias as the spot price remains below all key moving averages and the entire Bollinger Band range. The middle line of the Bollinger Bands at 0.6984 and the 50-day simple moving average at 0.7039 serve as overhead resistance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) is approaching 40, indicating that while downward pressure persists, the pair is nearing oversold territory. On the upside, initial resistance lies near the 5-day simple moving average (SMA) at 0.6934, followed by the middle line of the Bollinger Band at 0.6984, and subsequently the 50-day SMA near 0.7039. In this context, there is no clear support level below the current price. A sustained move above 0.6856 (the low from earlier this week) would serve as the first signal that the sellers' short-term grip is weakening. Conversely, if the price fails to stabilize, the door remains open for further weakness toward 0.6854 (last week's low) or even the 0.6800 psychological level.

For today, one might consider going long on the AUD at 0.6915, with a stop-loss at 0.6905 and targets at 0.6980 and 0.6970.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD climbed above 1.3440 during Monday’s early Asian session, snapping a two-day losing streak. The pair strengthened following a more hawkish-than-expected policy stance from the Bank of England (BoE). Last week, the BoE raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%—the first such hike in over three years. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey highlighted that energy prices, driven higher by conflict in the Middle East, are a key factor in determining future interest rate decisions. The market is now pricing in three additional rate hikes by the end of next year, exceeding the forecasts of most economists. While Bailey noted that a recent dip in oil prices—following market reactions to U.S. midterm elections—would not have altered today’s decision, he acknowledged that it would "clearly" influence his outlook moving forward. Meanwhile, a stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls report may help limit any decline in the U.S. dollar. On Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy added 165,000 jobs in October, up from 60,000 in September and surpassing the market expectation of 65,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate for October fell to 4.1% from 4.2% in September.

On the daily chart, GBP/USD remains range-bound, hovering just above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.3414. The price sits slightly above the 20-day Bollinger Band midline of 1.3356, suggesting potential buying support nearby; however, the proximity of the 50-day SMA above continues to cap upside movement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 54—a neutral reading—indicating that momentum is currently insufficient to challenge existing resistance levels. On the downside, immediate support lies at the 20-day Bollinger Band midline of 1.3358; should selling pressure intensify, further support can be found near the psychological level of 1.3300. On the upside, initial resistance is located at the 50-day SMA (near last Friday’s high of 1.3463), followed by the upper Bollinger Band near 1.3492. A decisive move back above this level would be required to shift the short-term bias toward a more constructive, bullish outlook.

For today, consider going long on GBP at 1.3430; stop-loss: 1.3420; targets: 1.3480, 1.3490.

USD/JPY

On Monday, the Japanese yen strengthened against the US dollar, reaching the 158 level and recovering some of the ground lost last week. Hawkish remarks from Bank of Japan (BOJ) officials have bolstered market expectations for further interest rate hikes. Seisaku Kameda, the BOJ’s chief economist, indicated that the central bank could raise rates in December and continue tightening monetary policy into next year, potentially pushing borrowing costs toward 2%. Meanwhile, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda noted that underlying inflation is expected to remain near the central bank’s 2% target, while acknowledging the presence of "some upside risks." Meanwhile, data from Japan’s Ministry of Finance confirms that Japanese authorities intervened in the foreign exchange market in late July to support the yen, purchasing a record 15.4 trillion yen over three days. Japan and the U.S. previously confirmed a coordinated intervention on July 31—the first such joint operation to bolster the yen since 1998.

Bulls in the USD/JPY pair have been unable to sustain the rebound that began from last week’s low of 157.39, with the pair facing selling pressure for two consecutive days. Bears are now looking for a decisive break below the 158.00 level, which would open the door for further downside toward 157.33 (the 50-day moving average). Conversely, a move above 158.28 (the 5-day moving average) could lead to a test of 158.93 (the upper Bollinger Band). Additionally, the minutes from the Bank of Japan’s September monetary policy meeting—in which members reached a consensus on the appropriateness of continuing to raise policy rates and adjusting the degree of monetary easing—have reinforced market expectations for a rate hike in December, providing a modest boost to the yen. Combined with a broader sell-off in the U.S. dollar, these factors have exerted downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair. With major economic data yet to be released, market sentiment remains cautious; furthermore, persistent expectations that Japan’s Ministry of Finance may intervene again to support the yen mean that any rebound in USD/JPY is likely to encounter selling pressure. In the short term, the pair is expected to trade within a range; it is advisable to wait for a breakout before establishing directional positions.

For today, consider shorting the USD/JPY pair at 158.10, with a stop-loss at 158.30 and targets at 157.50 and 157.30.

EUR/USD

After two consecutive days of declines, the EUR/USD pair has recovered its losses and is currently trading near 1.1220. The Euro found support—pushing the EUR/USD pair higher—after several European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers, including the governors of the German and Italian central banks, hinted at a strong possibility of an interest rate hike in December. The pair’s rise was further bolstered by a decline in the US Dollar, even though the CME FedWatch tool indicates that the probability of another 25-basis-point rate hike at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on December 8–9 has climbed to nearly 80%. Meanwhile, stronger-than-expected US employment data could potentially boost the Dollar and exert downward pressure on the pair. Looking ahead, investors will be closely monitoring Tuesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and Friday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) for further signals regarding the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision.

On the daily chart, EUR/USD maintains a short-term bullish bias, with the spot price holding above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1194. The price is hovering above the lower Bollinger Band at 1.1129, suggesting some initial buying interest in this area. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 45.67—remaining below the neutral 50 level—which indicates only modest rebound momentum within a broader downward bias. On the upside, initial resistance is found at the upper Bollinger Band (1.1258), with more significant resistance located near the 50-day SMA at approximately 1.1334. On the downside, immediate support aligns with the lower Bollinger Band at 1.1126; a break below this level would open the path toward the 1.1100 psychological mark.

For today, consider going long on the Euro at 1.1210, with a stop-loss at 1.1200 and targets at 1.1280 and 1.1290.

WTI Spot Crude Oil

At the start of the week, WTI crude oil fell to around $86.00 per barrel, extending the losses seen the previous week. This followed remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump, who stated that it was "highly unlikely" he would authorize further strikes against Iran, provided that negotiations regarding Iran’s nuclear program and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz show significant progress. Trump also acknowledged that this unpopular conflict had driven up oil and gasoline prices, contributing to a historic defeat for the Republican Party in the midterm elections. Anticipation that the Democratic Party might push for a swift resolution to the conflict in the Middle East caused West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude to plummet by nearly 13% last week. However, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio tempered optimism regarding a potential breakthrough in negotiations, describing the demands presented by Iran thus far as unacceptable. Meanwhile, an attack by Houthi forces damaged a landmark building in Riyadh’s financial district and caused minor damage to an office complex belonging to the Saudi state-owned oil giant, Saudi Aramco.

The continuous contract for U.S. crude oil has plummeted from an October high of $104.02. Four consecutive large bearish candles pushed the price down to a low of $86.03—a weekly decline of approximately 11.76% to 13%. This marks the largest weekly drop since the onset of the pandemic (and, in absolute terms, one of the largest since 1988). The daily chart structure reveals an accelerated decline following a classic top reversal: after a long-upper-shadow bearish candle signaled a peak, subsequent candles showed increasingly larger bodies with virtually no meaningful rebound. The most recent candlestick—featuring a small body with a lower shadow (for WTI) or a small bullish candle (for Brent)—near the lows offers an initial signal that the decline may be stalling, though the overall technical picture remains one of a deep, structural breakdown. Technical indicators have also deteriorated: for U.S. crude, the MACD shows a DIFF of -0.24 and a DEA of 1.18, with the bearish histogram expanding to -2.83—indicating strengthening bearish momentum following a "death cross." The RSI stands at approximately 42, having just ticked up from a low level. For Brent crude, the MACD green histogram has expanded to -4.15, and the RSI is around 60. The price is currently barely holding above 83.56 (the August 31 low) and 86.03 (a recent low); a breakdown below these levels would point toward $80.00—a key psychological support level—and would clearly signal a shift in trend from bullish to bearish. On the upside, watch the $94.31 level (the 40-day moving average); a breakout above this would target $96.60 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands).

For today, one might consider going long on crude oil at $85.70, with a stop-loss at $85.55 and targets at $87.00 and $88.00.

Spot Gold

On Monday, spot gold was trading near $4,140 per ounce. Gold prices fell last Friday as stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve might maintain higher interest rates for a longer period, which in turn boosted the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields. The robust U.S. hiring data highlights the resilience of the labor market. Following the release of the strong employment report, gold prices initially gapped lower before attempting a recovery. Independent metals traders have described this as a "litmus test" for the week's upward momentum. Gold had climbed to a two-week high above $4,140 overnight, but subsequently gave back some of those gains as oil prices rebounded and the U.S. dollar stabilized; however, softening U.S. Treasury yields continued to provide some support. It is also worth noting that the deepening sell-off in the artificial intelligence and semiconductor sectors warrants short-term caution—if weakness in risk assets triggers broader deleveraging, the market could see a sell-off in gold, making it difficult for the metal to remain unaffected. However, the relative resilience shown by gold prices amidst a broad sell-off in risk assets is "encouraging." Following a recent pullback and a reduction in speculative positioning, gold may be gradually regaining some of its safe-haven appeal, potentially offering shelter from turbulence elsewhere in the financial markets. Whether it can remain firm should risk assets continue to weaken, however, remains a significant test. In the short term, market attention has shifted toward the U.S. CPI data due on Tuesday, while oil prices remain a key driver for inflation and interest rate expectations. Meanwhile, the outcome of debates over defense budgets and the timeline for the potential resolution of ongoing conflicts will continue to influence the flow of safe-haven capital.

From a technical perspective, gold remains in a recovery phase—a rebound from an oversold condition—on the daily chart, yet it has not yet broken through the resistance levels of its current trading range. At $4,140, ​​the price sits slightly above the midpoint of this range. The $4,180–$4,200 zone serves as a critical resistance area that will likely dictate the next directional move—with the 100-day moving average positioned at $4,201. Only a decisive breakout above the $4,180–$4,200 range, followed by consolidation, would likely trigger an acceleration in bullish momentum and alleviate the current bearish bias. Regarding technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at approximately 53.15—a neutral level—suggesting that the recent rebound lacks the definitive momentum required to challenge the overhead resistance structure. On the downside, the $4,063 level (the median line of the Bollinger Band) and the $4,065 level (last week’s closing price) serve as key support; as long as these levels hold, the rebound structure remains intact. Should $4,063–$4,065 be breached, a deeper decline could expose the $4,000 psychological support level. Conversely, if the rebound gains traction above the 40-day moving average at $4,145, gold may go on to test the $4,200 round-number mark.

Consider going long on gold today at 4,135; stop-loss: 4,130; targets: 4,180, 4,190.