US Dollar Index

On Tuesday, the US dollar rose slightly, with the US dollar index returning to the 100 area during the North American trading session. The index rebounded from the recent three-year low under oversold conditions, but market sentiment remains fragile. Although the US dollar rose against major currencies such as the euro, the market remained cautious due to the continued uncertainty caused by US President Trump's tariff policy changes. Traders are also digesting mixed comments and weak economic data released by the Federal Reserve, all of which occurred in volatile trading on Tuesday. The US dollar index has continued to fluctuate below the psychological barrier of 100 since the beginning of the week, the lowest in three years. The instability of trade policy is consistent with previous situations. The White House has imposed aggressive tariffs on trade and then wavered, threatening the supply chain of key US industries, causing global funds to sell US assets, stocks to fall, and US Treasury yields to fall. The US dollar has decoupled from US Treasury yields. The US dollar fell last week, while US Treasury yields rose. This has triggered market speculation that investors are moving investments out of the United States because they are worried about the durability of tariffs and their impact.

The US dollar index, despite a small rebound on Monday, fell back again before the close, and the technicals of the daily chart are still fragile. The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) continues to send a sell signal, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is oversold at 29.55. The index trend remains below all major moving averages, especially the key 200-day simple moving average at 104.76. Short-term indicators such as the 10-day simple moving average also maintain a downward slope at 101.85. Therefore, the resistance level can first be considered at the 100.16 {300-week moving average} area. This is followed by the key 100.62 {last December low}, and then further upwards to challenge the 101.00 {round mark} level. The technical background suggests that the decline of the US dollar index may not be over yet. Therefore, the initial support level appears at the 2025 low of 99.02 (April 11), then 98.52 (the low of early April 2022), and 98.35 (the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level of 93.27 to 114.78).

Today, you can consider shorting the US dollar index around 100.30, stop loss: 100.40, target: 99.75, 99.80

WTI spot crude oil

On Thursday (March 27), international oil prices rose slightly as market participants were evaluating the impact of tightening global crude oil supply and the latest US tariffs on the global economy and energy demand.

At the beginning of the week, oil prices rebounded slightly due to the exemption of some electronic products from US tariffs and data showing that China's crude oil imports rebounded sharply in March, but the gains were limited by concerns that the trade war could weaken global economic growth and suppress fuel demand. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday he would announce import tariffs on semiconductors in the coming week, adding that flexibility would be maintained for some companies in the sector. Meanwhile, data on Monday showed that China's crude oil imports in March rebounded sharply from the previous two months, up nearly 5% year-on-year, boosted by Iranian oil and a recovery in Russian deliveries. However, Brent and U.S. crude have fallen by about $10 a barrel since the beginning of the month, and analysts have cut their oil price forecasts as the trade war between the world's two largest economies intensifies. Oil prices will decline at the end of this year and next year due to rising risks of recession and increased supply from the OPEC+ organization.

WTI crude oil futures prices rose slightly to start the week, but still hovered in a key technical range of $59.06 (Friday's low) to $63.64 {last week's high}. This narrow range indicates that the market lacks a clear direction and could break out in either direction in the future. Crude oil prices remained range-bound this week, lacking clear directional momentum. The outlook remains bearish until a breakout of $63.64 or a clear demand stimulus emerges. In the short term, downward pressure is gradually increasing. If oil prices continue to break through $60.00 (market psychological barrier) and $59.06 (Friday's low), the sell-off may accelerate. The next major support range is $57.80 to $57.00. This area may play a supporting role. As for the upside, the first resistance can be focused on $62.81, and the next major resistance range is $63.64, the high of last week, and $64.20 {the axis of the weekly chart downward channel}.

Today, consider going long on crude oil around 60.78, stop loss: 60.55; target: 62.30; 62.40

Spot gold

On Tuesday, spot gold traded around 3,230. Gold prices fell at the beginning of the week, and fell back after hitting an all-time high of 3,245.50 earlier in the session, as risk sentiment improved after the White House exempted high tariffs on smartphones and computers. However, although risk trading has led to a correction in gold prices, the current environment is still favorable for gold. Tariff exemptions have weakened some of the safe-haven demand, but trade uncertainty, a weak dollar and falling Treasury yields still provide support. It is worth noting that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell 12.5 basis points to 4.368% on Monday, and the U.S. dollar index experienced an extreme decline of four standard deviations in the past week. These factors together weave the complex fundamentals of gold. Goldman Sachs has taken the lead in raising its gold price forecast to $3,700 at the end of the year, and data from the World Gold Council shows that China's gold ETF fund inflows have surged. Analysts generally believe that when policy uncertainty becomes the "elephant in the room", the monetary attributes of gold will shine again.

From a technical perspective, the trend of spot gold continues the recent strong pattern. On the daily level, gold prices have continued to run along the rising channel since breaking through $3,000/ounce. Although there has been a small correction during the day, the overall bullish trend has not been damaged. The current price is firmly above $3,200/ounce, which has become a key psychological and support level in the short term. In terms of the moving average system, the 5-day moving average and the 10-day moving average continue to maintain a golden cross state, indicating that short-term momentum is still bullish. If the gold price can continue to stand above the $3,200 area, the bulls may further challenge $3,245.50 {previous high}, and the $3,250 area, or even $3,300. At present, the support strength of $3,200 is relatively strong. If the gold price falls in the future, it will usher in a new wave of technical adjustments to $3,175.60 {last Friday's low} and the $3,185 support area. Below this level, $3,150 {April 1 high} may play a supporting role.

Consider going long on gold before 3,225 today, stop loss: 3,220; target: 3,245; 3250

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar gave up its early strength on Tuesday, falling from an intraday high near 0.6385 to near the 0.6340 area during the North American session. The reversal came as the US dollar index attempted a small rebound from a three-year low near 99.00. The Australian dollar strengthened against the US dollar on Tuesday, rising for the fifth consecutive trading day. AUD/USD continued to gain momentum as US President Trump excluded key technology products from his new "reciprocal" tariffs, boosting global risk sentiment. These exemptions cover most of the goods produced in China, which remains Australia's largest trading partner and a major consumer of its goods, providing support to the Australian dollar. The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's March 31-April 1 meeting indicated that the timing of the next interest rate change remains uncertain. Although the board noted that the May meeting would be an appropriate time to re-evaluate policy, it stressed that there was no predetermined decision. Members acknowledged that global uncertainties, particularly around US tariffs, could weigh significantly on the outlook. The Board also highlighted both upside and downside risks to the Australian economy and inflation. The Australian dollar remained strong following the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia minutes.

AUD/USD traded above 0.6340 on Tuesday, with the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart having risen above the 50 level {latest around 57.00}, further reinforcing the positive momentum. Pointing to a bullish bias. The pair remains above the 14-day (0.6184) and 50-day (0.6284) simple moving averages, while on the upside, AUD/USD could target 0.6389 (April 3 high), a break of which would open up space directly towards 0.6407 {30-week moving average}, and 0.6428 {50.0% Fibonacci rebound} area, although the technical bias remains cautious for now. Immediate support is at 0.6284 near the 50-day SMA, further support is at 0.6240 at the 5-week SMA, and the round number mark of 0.6200, followed by 0.6181 {last Friday's low}.

Consider going long AUD before 0.6330 today, Stop Loss: 0.6315; Target: 0.6375; 0.6380

GBP/USD

The British pound rose on Tuesday and hit a six-month high against the US dollar as the narrative in financial markets remains tied to the imposition of tariffs by the United States. GBP/USD shrugged off the weak UK employment data, and as a result, the GBP/USD pair attracted bids for the sixth consecutive day, climbing above 1.3200 to hit a new high of 1.3252 since October 2024. Moreover, the bearish sentiment surrounding the US dollar suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the upside. Investors are concerned about the possible economic impact of the escalating US-China trade war. In fact, China on Friday raised tariffs on US imports to 125% in retaliation to US President Donald Trump’s decision to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to an unprecedented 145%. The US still imports several materials from China that are difficult to replace, a development that has undermined confidence in the US economy, in turn keeping the US dollar bulls on the defensive and providing support to the GBP/USD pair. On the other hand, the British pound has found support from slightly lower chances of a rate cut by the Bank of England next month. This is seen as another positive factor for the GBP/USD pair.

Even from a technical perspective, the sustained breakout and acceptance above the 1.3100 level at the beginning of the week validates the positive outlook in the short term. As far as momentum indicators are concerned, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart shows a strong bullish stance close to 66, while the average directional index (ADX) around 27 suggests that the strength of the trend is moderate. Therefore, a subsequent test of the next relevant resistance level close to 1.3274 {last year’s October 4 high}, and 1.3300 {market psychological barrier} area for an upside move seems to be a distinct possibility. Currently, a break above the 1.3300 mark could see a visit to the 2024 high of 1.3434 (September 26). On the downside, immediate support is at the psychological level of 1.3100, with the next level pointing to the support area of ​​1.3063 (Monday's low). Further down, the psychological level of 1.3000 will be tested.

Today, it is recommended to go long on GBP before 1.3213, stop loss: 1.3200, target: 1.3260, 1.3270

USD/JPY

USD/JPY rose slightly on Tuesday, hovering in the 143 area, moving slightly higher in the intraday range. This mild intraday rebound occurred before the Asian session, but has not yet challenged the broader bearish signals dominating the chart. During the Asian session on Tuesday, the yen fell slightly, accompanied by a slight rebound in the US dollar, pushing the USD/JPY pair closer to the mid-143 level. The positive impact on sentiment remains as US President Donald Trump paused tariffs on key consumer electronics and indicated that the automotive industry may be temporarily exempted from 25% tariffs. This in turn is seen as weakening demand for traditional safe-haven assets, including the yen. However, the rapidly escalating US-China trade war and continued concerns about the possible economic consequences of Trump's damaging tariffs should keep a lid on market optimism. Meanwhile, market expectations for continued rate hikes by the Bank of Japan have created a stark divergence from expectations for more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve. This, coupled with expectations for a US-Japan trade deal, should limit losses for the low-yielding yen.

From a technical perspective, any subsequent gains are likely to face strong resistance and cap gains for USD/JPY around 144.00, or the overnight swing high. However, a sustained strong breakout could spark a short-term covering rally and push the spot price to the 144.45-144.50 levels, moving towards the psychological 145.00 mark. Momentum could extend further to the 145.50 area and the 146.00 round number. On the other hand, a move back below 143.00 would seem to find some support in the 142.25-142.20 area, followed by the psychological 142.00 mark, or the multi-month low hit last Friday. A break below that would be seen as a new trigger for bearish traders and drag the USD/JPY pair to the 141.65-141.60 support level, and thus towards the 141.00 mark.

Today's recommendation is to short the USD before 143.50, stop loss: 143.70; target: 142.50, 142.30

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair retreated slightly after the European close on Tuesday, sliding from its earlier intraday high and hovering at the lower end of its intraday range. Prices traded just below 1.13, slightly down on the day, although the overall technical bias remains in favor of buyers. EUR/USD slipped for the second consecutive session, trading near 1.1350 during the Asian session on Tuesday. The pair weakened as the U.S. dollar tried to regain stability amid growing stagflation concerns. Earlier on Tuesday, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Rafael Bostic commented that the Fed still faces a long journey to get inflation down to its 2% target. His comments dampened market expectations for further rate cuts in the near term. Market participants are now focused on the ECB's bank credit survey, which could provide key insights into the ECB's assessment of monetary and economic conditions ahead of its policy meeting on Thursday. The ECB is scheduled to hold its policy meeting on Thursday, with markets widely expecting a 25 basis point rate cut. The euro also found support amid escalating global trade tensions and heightened uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy, which has reignited concerns about a potential recession and weakened investor sentiment towards U.S. assets.

Ever since breaking above the 200-day simple moving average near 1.0744 in early March, the EUR/USD pair has been plagued by stagnant momentum and slow bullish progress. The technical bias currently remains in favor of buyers, with the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) hovering around 70.80, still in overbought territory, while the ADX above 41 suggests a moderately strong trend that could support a sustained bullish bias. Upside targets suggest the first hurdle is located at the 2025 high of 1.1473 (April 11). A decisive break above this level could open the way to the 2022 high of 1.1498 (February 19), followed by the 1.1500 round number. On the downside, first focus on key support at 1.1222 {61.8% Fibonacci rebound from 1.2266 to 0.9535}, followed by 1.1200 (round number).

Today it is recommended to go long on Euro before 1.1270, stop loss: 1.1255, target: 1.1335, 1.1340.

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